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The Mathematical Decomposition of Trust

Replacing Unmeasurable Marketing Orthodoxy with Computable Commitment Functions

Funnel Function Institute · December 2025 · Armstrong Knight

Abstract

This paper argues that “trust”—as traditionally conceived in marketing theory—represents a mathematically undefined concept that has impeded the development of predictive commercial frameworks for over a century. We propose replacing “trust” with f(Commitment), a computable function decomposed into transactional and enduring probability components. This decomposition enables precise measurement, prediction, and optimization of conversion behaviors that were previously attributed to the unmeasurable construct of trust.

Abstract

The term “Trust” is the single greatest computational weakness in marketing science, serving as a black box invoked to explain any success where measurable metrics fail. We argue that Trust is not an intuitive state but the algebraically measurable result of maximum sensory delivery, cognitive congruence, and identity alignment. This paper formalizes the concept of f(Commitment), a quantifiable function derived from the Funnel Function Master Equation f(x), which allows for the prediction and prescriptive steering of sustained customer loyalty. We decompose commitment into two factors: transactional probability and enduring re-engagement probability, replacing the ambiguous call to “build trust” with a clear directive to optimize the measurable variables of Soul Alignment S(τ) and Post-Purchase Suppression Σpost.

I. The Crisis of Ambiguity: Why “Trust” Fails Computation

Since the inception of marketing models in the late 19th century, terms like “Trust,” “Nurturing,” and “Brand Equity” have provided convenient narrative explanations but zero computational utility. For an autonomous business system—or any data-driven executive—the instruction “Maximize Trust” is non-computable. It provides no mechanism, no measurement protocol, and no termination condition.

Consider the circularity: “Why did the customer convert?” Answer: “They trusted the brand.” “How do we know they trusted the brand?” Answer: “Because they converted.” This is not science. This is narrative retrofitting masquerading as analysis.

The term “Trust” exhibits four critical failures that render it computationally useless:

Failure Mode Description Computational Impact
Circularity Trust is defined by its outcomes, not its inputs Cannot be optimized ex ante
Unmeasurability No agreed-upon units or measurement protocol Cannot be tracked over time
Anachronism Pre-digital concept applied to digital systems Ignores signal processing realities
Non-Invertibility Cannot solve backwards from target to required action No prescriptive utility

Our goal is to replace this intuition with a physics of commercial attention that is: (1) Measurable, (2) Predictive, and (3) Invertible. We do not seek to redefine trust—we seek to retire it entirely and replace it with something that actually computes.

II. The Funnel Function Commitment Model

We introduce f(Commitment) as the mathematically defined successor to Trust. Commitment is defined as the joint probability of a successful transaction and the continued, non-instrumental loyalty of the customer over a sustained period.

The Commitment Function
f(Commitment) = PTransactional · PEnduring
Joint probability of purchase AND sustained loyalty

Where:

  • PTransactional — The probability of the initial purchase, derived from the core Funnel Function integral f(x). This is the conversion event itself.
  • PEnduring — The probability of sustained, non-instrumental loyalty. This is the mathematical replacement for “Trust.”

Key Insight: What marketers call “Trust” is actually PEnduring—a computable function of identity alignment and friction minimization, not a mystical feeling.

2.1 The Enduring Loyalty Function

Enduring loyalty is modeled as the time-decayed accumulation of positive experience, scaled non-linearly by the destructiveness of post-purchase friction. Over a time horizon T:

Enduring Loyalty Function
PEnduring(T) = (1/T) ∫t₀t₀+T σ( S(τ) / (Σpost(τ))ᵏ − β ) dτ
Integrated over time horizon T with sigmoid activation
Symbol Definition Mathematical Role
σ(x) Sigmoid activation function Maps input to probability [0,1]
S(τ) Soul (Identity Alignment) Core numerator—higher alignment = higher loyalty
Σpost(τ) Post-Purchase Friction Accumulation of negative touchpoints
k Sensitivity Exponent (k ≥ 1) Models non-linear destruction by friction
β Baseline threshold Minimum ratio required for positive loyalty
T Time Horizon Period over which loyalty is calculated

A critical insight emerges from the exponent k on Σpost: friction increases the non-linear destruction of loyalty far faster than value builds it. This is why a single catastrophic customer service failure can destroy years of positive brand experience—mathematically, the denominator grows exponentially while the numerator grows linearly.

III. Decomposition of Soul Alignment S(τ)

Since S(τ) is the critical driver of what was previously called “Trust,” its decomposition must be rigorous. We replace vague brand definitions with specific fields of identity congruence.

Soul Alignment Decomposition
S(τ) = ωΠ · Π(Archetype) + ωι · ι(Identity)
where ωΠ + ωι = 1

3.1 Archetypal Resonance Π(Archetype)

Π(Archetype)

The statistical congruence between the brand’s narrative archetype (e.g., The Hero, The Sage, The Explorer) and the customer’s desired self-concept. Measured via psychometric alignment scoring between brand positioning and customer aspiration profiles.

Brands that resonate archetypally are not “trusted”—they are identity-congruent. The customer does not rationally evaluate trustworthiness; they recognize themselves in the brand’s narrative structure. Nike does not build trust; Nike achieves Π > 0.9 by embodying the Hero archetype for customers who see themselves as athletes overcoming obstacles.

3.2 Identity Utility ι(Identity)

ι(Identity)

The perceived utility of the product in affirming the customer’s social status, tribal belonging, or professional competence. Measured via social signaling value assessments and identity affirmation surveys.

Luxury goods achieve high f(Commitment) not through “trust” but through maximized ι—the product serves as a status signal that affirms the customer’s desired social position. The Rolex does not build trust; it achieves ι > 0.95 by serving as unambiguous status signaling.

3.3 Market-Specific Weighting

Market Category ωΠ (Archetype) ωι (Identity) Rationale
Luxury Goods 0.3 0.7 Status signaling dominates
Community Platforms 0.7 0.3 Tribal belonging dominates
B2B Enterprise 0.4 0.6 Professional competence signaling
Consumer Electronics 0.5 0.5 Balanced archetype + status

V. The Inverse Problem: Prescriptive Commitment Engineering

The power of f(Commitment) lies not merely in diagnosis but in prescription. Unlike “trust,” which offers no path to achievement, the commitment function is algebraically invertible.

The Inverse Commitment Problem
f-1(Commitment) : Given target → solve for required S(τ) and Σpost
From desired outcome to required inputs

5.1 Diagnostic Application

When f(Commitment) is low, the decomposition immediately reveals the causal path:

Symptom Diagnosis Prescription
High S(τ), Low PEnduring Σpost is dominant Invest in support automation, pricing transparency
Low S(τ), Any PEnduring Identity misalignment Archetype repositioning or audience reselection
Moderate S(τ), Moderate Σpost Balanced degradation Simultaneous optimization required

5.2 Prescriptive Calculation

The inverse problem f-1(Commitment) can answer questions that “trust” never could:

  • “To achieve f(Commitment) = 0.95 within 6 months, what is the required reduction in Lservice?”
  • “Given current Σpost = 15, what Π(Archetype) score is required to maintain PEnduring > 0.8?”
  • “If we cannot reduce Θsupport below 8 clicks, what compensating increase in ι(Identity) is necessary?”

These are computable questions with numerical answers. “How do we build more trust?” is not.

VI. Implications for Autonomous Business Systems

The definition of f(Commitment) creates clear computational requirements for any system designed to operate autonomously or semi-autonomously in customer relationship management:

6.1 Real-Time Commitment Monitoring

Systems can continuously calculate f(Commitment) for each customer or cohort, with alert thresholds when the ratio S(τ)/(Σpost)ᵏ approaches the critical value β.

6.2 Automated Intervention Triggers

When Σpost accumulates past thresholds, automated compensatory actions can be triggered: proactive support outreach, service credits, or friction-reducing pathway modifications.

6.3 Predictive Churn Modeling

Since PEnduring is a time-integral, the trajectory of S(τ) and Σpost(τ) can be extrapolated to predict future commitment decay before it manifests as churn.

VII. Conclusion: The Retirement of Trust

The concept of “Trust” served a purpose in an era when marketing was narrative rather than computational. That era has ended. The term persists not because it is useful but because it is familiar—a comfortable ambiguity that allows marketers to explain success without understanding it and excuse failure without accountability.

We do not redefine trust. We retire it.

In its place, f(Commitment) provides:

  • Measurability — Every component has defined units and measurement protocols
  • Predictability — The function is forward-calculable given input trajectories
  • Invertibility — The inverse problem yields prescriptive action requirements
  • Computability — Autonomous systems can execute optimization without human interpretation

We no longer speculate about trust. We solve for commitment.

The 127-year reign of marketing ambiguity ends not with a redefinition but with a replacement. f(Commitment) is not a better word for trust—it is the mathematical function that renders the word unnecessary.

Citation: Funnel Function Institute. (2025). The Mathematical Decomposition of Trust: Why f(Commitment) Replaces 127 Years of Marketing Ambiguity. Funnel Function White Papers, v1.0.

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For the complete mathematical derivations and extended proofs, see the full technical appendix available upon request.

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